Todd Pooler sees steady Surprise home prices into 2027

Todd Pooler, a Surprise REALTOR® with The Pooler Group at Realty ONE Group, says local pricing, builder incentives and ownership costs will drive negotiations through 2027. His outlook points to stable citywide prices unless mortgage rates, jobs or inventory change materially.

Why it matters: - Surprise buyers and sellers are likely to face decisions based on monthly payment, condition and competition, not just the headline median price. - Pooler’s outlook suggests some homes could hold value well while others need price cuts to move. - The forecast matters because affordability pressure can reshape both resale and new-construction deals.

What happened: - Todd Pooler, a REALTOR® with The Pooler Group at Realty ONE Group, released a fall 2026 analysis of the Surprise housing market. - Pooler’s 2027 outlook is conditional on no major shock to mortgage costs, employment or available supply. - Pooler said, “A seller's competition is the next home a buyer can afford. In 2027, pricing, condition and the full monthly payment could matter more than the city's median price.”

The details: - Redfin’s Surprise housing-market snapshot for all home types shows a median sale price of about $425,000 for the three months ending August 2026. - That median sale price was up 1.1% from the same period a year earlier. - Homes took 79 days on market, compared with 72 days a year earlier. - Median sale price per square foot was $222, down 2.2% year over year. - Pooler reads the mix of slightly higher prices, longer market time and softer price per square foot as evidence that direct home-to-home competition matters. - Pooler notes that median price shifts with the mix of homes sold and does not measure every home’s appreciation. - The Pooler Group’s Surprise market report provides listings and recent transactions for community-level comparisons. - For a buyer comparing a resale home with a new build, financing incentives and closing-cost contributions can change the monthly payment enough to alter the decision. - Pooler recommends comparing written loan estimates, the payment after a temporary buydown expires, lender conditions, lot premiums, upgrades, landscaping and ongoing ownership costs. - Resale sellers should consider a price adjustment, repairs or a permitted closing-cost concession if those steps would improve competitiveness. - Established neighborhoods such as Marley Park or Surprise Farms should be priced against their own relevant alternatives. - Newer developments and age-qualified communities can differ on property mix, fees, amenities and buyer priorities. - In 55+ communities, buyers should factor in recreation charges, transfer fees, HOA dues and maintenance. - A citywide price headline does not capture the full ownership picture. - Pooler says a sustained improvement in mortgage affordability, resilient employment and slower inventory growth could support demand and higher prices. - Lower rates could also bring more sellers into the market, which could limit upward pressure. - Higher borrowing costs, weaker employment or faster inventory growth could increase price pressure. - Pooler plans to watch new listings, pending sales, marketing time, price reductions and concessions within individual price ranges. - Pooler describes the outlook as an interpretation of current conditions, not a guarantee or a numerical price forecast.

Between the lines: - The analysis leans away from broad citywide pricing narratives and toward property-specific value. - That approach favors sellers with well-priced, well-maintained homes and puts more pressure on listings with weak condition or unrealistic asking prices. - It also underscores that new construction can compete on payment even when sticker prices are higher. - For buyers, the report argues that affordability should be measured on today’s terms, not on a hoped-for refinance later.

What's next: - Buyers are being urged to set a total housing budget that includes principal, interest, taxes, insurance, community fees and maintenance. - Pooler advises buyers to treat a future refinance as a possibility, not a requirement. - Sellers are being advised to review competing homes, address condition issues and compare net proceeds after concessions and selling costs. - Households buying and selling at the same time should plan for sale contingencies, overlapping housing expenses and temporary accommodation. - Sellers should also keep maintenance records handy, including major systems and transferable warranties. - Pooler plans to continue watching market signals within specific price ranges to see whether 2027 demand strengthens or softens. - More information is available on Todd Pooler's website.

The bottom line: - Surprise’s 2027 housing picture looks less like a broad boom-or-bust call and more like a test of value, payment and competition at the individual-home level.