AGP Executive Report

Canada’s Cooling Market: Home sales fell 2.3% in September, extending August’s decline; prices were down 3.4% year over year as higher mortgage rates weighed on buyers. Buyer Leverage: In the U.S., sellers offered concessions in more than 45% of September sales, while 22% cut prices—often using mortgage-rate buydowns to attract buyers. Development: Newmarket says plans for more than 5,100 homes around Upper Canada Mall remain intact after the mall’s $411 million sale. Brokerage Rules: California’s real estate battle over home-listing rules escalated, with a major firm suing Compass and Compass filing its own suit. Foreign Investment: A New Zealand lawyer was found negligent for helping overseas buyers sidestep land-acquisition rules; the buyers were later forced to sell the properties and pay more than $1.7 million in penalties and costs.

Buyer Affordability: Rising mortgage rates and home prices are sidelining buyers, while Florida home sales also slipped in the third quarter. Canada’s Cooling Market: September home sales fell 7.7% from a year earlier, prompting CREA to cut its 2026 sales forecast again. Foreign Ownership: Saudi Arabia has opened property purchases to foreign nationals, but residency rules, investment thresholds and restricted areas limit access. Market Shifts: Seoul apartment prices have climbed for 88 straight weeks despite housing curbs, while apartments are driving demand in Ho Chi Minh City. Brokerage Rules: Compass is suing California’s listing service over rules governing home listings, escalating a dispute with potential implications for agents and sellers. Commercial Property: Global real estate investment sales reached a record $47.52 billion in the third quarter, even as residential markets face affordability pressure.

Market Shift: U.S. home sellers outnumber buyers by a record 63%, while higher mortgage rates are weighing on demand. Canada’s September sales fell 7.7% year over year, prompting CREA to cut its 2026 sales forecast again. Regional Prices: Metro Vancouver home prices fell 4% in the third quarter, and Royal LePage expects a further 4.5% annual decline by year-end. Rental Demand: In the U.S., rental demand climbed 19.2% year over year as would-be buyers faced higher borrowing costs; demand for single-family rentals rose even faster, up 21.6%. China’s Housing Rules: Hangzhou and Shenzhen joined five other major cities in shifting new-home sales toward completed properties, a change that could affect developer financing and future supply. Listing Fight: California’s largest multiple-listing service is suing Compass over its use of off-market listings, in a dispute that could reshape how agents share homes for sale. Tax and Ownership Costs: Florida voters will consider expanding the homestead exemption, while Portola Valley proposes a steep home-sale tax to shore up town finances.

Australia: Property sentiment has turned negative for the first time in six years. A survey of industry professionals forecasts national home prices will fall 4.2% over the next year, with New South Wales and South Australia facing the steepest declines. U.S. Investors: Investors bought 27% of homes sold in Q2, their lowest share in five quarters; purchases fell 22% year over year as overall sales grew. China: Major cities are tightening rules on home presales and promoting completed homes, aiming to protect buyers from unfinished projects. North America: Canadian home sales fell 7.7% year over year in September as mortgage rates rose, while U.S. sellers outnumber buyers by a record 63%, giving buyers more leverage. Spain: Foreign buyers are retreating as prices climb: purchases by non-residents fell 18% in the first half of 2026, to the lowest level for that period since 2021.

U.S. Market: Pending home sales have fallen near a 12-year low as mortgage rates return to the 7% range, while sellers outnumber buyers by a record 63%, giving buyers more room to negotiate. Colorado sales also weakened, though luxury homes are holding up better. Asia-Pacific: Singapore’s private-home sales nearly doubled in September, but most purchases were in existing projects and buyers remained price-conscious. In Dubai, rents for new leases eased while renewals rose, pointing to a more competitive market rather than a broad downturn. Policy & Supply: Victoria, Australia, now requires agents to disclose auction reserve prices in advance and publish sale prices after closing. In China, Shenzhen tightened pre-sale rules to favor completed homes; meanwhile, NSW pre-sale guarantees have helped speed nearly 1,300 homes, including affordable units. Property Deals: SkyCity agreed to sell Auckland’s Grand Hotel for NZ$221 million as it raises cash to repay debt. The deal is conditional on regulatory approval, with settlement targeted for December.

China Housing: Shenzhen tightened pre-sale rules, allowing projects to sell homes only after structures are topped out and giving buyers a right to refunds if delivery deadlines are missed. U.S. Market: September home sales rose from the previous month, but pending sales remain near a 12-year low; a record seller surplus and mortgage rates around 7.5% point to continued buyer strain. Canada: Prices were flat nationally in the third quarter, while B.C. sales fell 9% in September as rate uncertainty weighed on activity. Homeowner Trends: Downsizers now account for 44.1% of English home-sale instructions, up from 37.5% in 2019, as older owners trade larger homes for smaller ones.

Housing Market: U.S. home sales rose in September but stayed below year-earlier levels as mortgage rates near 7.5% squeezed buyers; seller surplus reached a record while buyer numbers fell. Affordability: In New South Wales, houses made up just 55% of purchases last quarter, down from 67%, as first-time buyers turned to apartments and vacant land. Property Deals: Lendlease faces a Thursday deadline to complete the sale of its Milan project stake, a deal central to its balance-sheet repair. Commercial Real Estate: Westland Center in Michigan is listed for $18 million; the struggling mall is 45% occupied, with its owner open to redevelopment partners. Housing & Development: Redlands Housing Corporation is buying the property occupied by Step Up for $13.5 million, with city, state and county funding helping preserve the housing investment. In Provincetown, plans for 40 condos are on hold amid a property ownership dispute.

U.S. Housing: Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September but remained 2.2% below a year earlier. The modest rebound reflects contracts signed before mortgage rates climbed near 7.5%; pending sales sank to a 12-year low. Markets diverged: New York-area prices rose 3.6% as listings grew, while Phoenix home values fell 1.1% and sales dropped 5.1%. Commercial Property: Australian buyers are pulling back as borrowing costs rise. Property searches have fallen year over year for 12 months and listings slipped 7% in the September quarter. Industrial sales held up, rising 27% over the year to June, while high office vacancies and low yields weigh on investor appetite. Housing Supply: Taylor Wimpey has started work on a 470-home development in Leigh, England, with a quarter of the homes designated affordable. Vancouver’s updated rules, effective Oct. 27, give developers more scope to build larger balconies in new apartments.

U.S. Housing: Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September, but remained below year-ago levels as prices and mortgage rates climbed. Pending sales sank to a 12-year low, with rates above 7% keeping many buyers on hold. Property Taxes: Florida’s Amendment 3 could sharply cut taxes on owner-occupied homes, but local advocates warn the projected $11 billion revenue loss could threaten services such as libraries. Polls vary widely, and the measure needs 60% approval. Affordability: Housing affordability ranked last in Utah’s quality-of-life survey; 91% of renter households are priced out of a median-priced home. Global Markets: Northern Ho Chi Minh City is becoming a major source of new apartments, with more than half of the city’s sale-eligible supply in the first seven months of 2026. Most new projects are upper-mid-range or high-end, as infrastructure investment boosts the area’s appeal.

U.S. Housing: Existing-home sales rose 1.5% in September to a 3.99 million annual pace, but remained down 2.2% year over year. Mortgage rates near 7.5% and high prices are keeping buyers on the sidelines, even as rising inventory gives them more negotiating power. Seller Trends: One in three U.S. listings has already had a price cut, averaging 5.9%, according to Homesage.ai. Global Markets: Cyprus logged a record September for property sales, up 13% from a year earlier; sales for the first nine months are running 14% ahead of 2025. Agent Visibility: A new webinar for North Carolina agents warned that inconsistent online profiles can make it harder for AI tools to recommend them to homebuyers.

Property Investment: Arena REIT rallied after a conditional deal was struck to transfer part of childcare operator Edge Early Learning to Goodstart. Rent continues across Edge’s centres, but the future of the remaining sites is unresolved. Apartment Markets: Colombo condo prices rose 3.2% year over year in the second quarter, while sales fell 6.7%; units above Rs. 50 million made up 55% of sales, up from 34% a year earlier. Home Prices: Ireland’s annual asking-price growth slowed to 3.9%, its weakest in more than three years. Prices fell 1.4% in the quarter as listings rose 12.5% year over year, though affordability remains stretched. Retirement Housing: Ryman Healthcare reported a strong quarter for resales but fewer new sales as it slows construction to clear surplus stock and preserve cash.

Land Dispute: Semantan Estate is asking Malaysia’s High Court to order the sale of Kuala Lumpur’s Duta Enclave or award compensation, valuing the land at RM12–13 billion and alleging the government occupies it despite a 2009 court ruling. Investor Pullback: A Bellevue firm bought an 88-unit Seattle apartment complex for $17.5 million, 28% below its assessed value, as higher rates push large investors away from older buildings. Buyer Leverage: Price cuts are spreading across Utah’s Wasatch Front: by September 1, 18.2% to 24.6% of listings in five counties were below their original asking prices. Housing Access: Ghana’s State Housing Company is offering 195 homes with a 5% discount, while Luxembourg’s government says it has no central data on buyers harmed by stalled or bankrupt apartment developments.

Property Dispute: Malaysia’s Semantan Estate is asking the government to sell Kuala Lumpur’s 263-acre Duta Enclave or pay compensation based on its estimated RM12–13 billion value, reopening a long-running land ownership battle. Market Pressure: Denver home sales have fallen to their lowest level since the financial crisis, while Australian auction clearance rates remain below 50% and affordability pressures continue to squeeze buyers. Price Pockets: Melbourne entry-level home prices have jumped by as much as 12%, even as vendors in some areas cut expectations. In Singapore, analysts see scope for modest gains in larger resale flats, but rising housing supply may limit broader price growth. Investment Watch: Homes in Johor’s Singapore-linked economic zones are up 7–9% over the year, outpacing the wider state; stronger corporate rental demand is a draw, though investors still face risks tied to the delayed cross-border rail link. Property Rights: Twelve farming families in western Victoria were fined for blocking survey access for a proposed power line, and are challenging the government’s use of its land-access powers.

Asia-Pacific: Beijing’s new-home market rebounded sharply, with sales volume from Oct. 1–8 up 163% year over year, while Seoul buyers drove the strongest apartment-price gains into lower-cost districts. Australia: Auction clearance stayed below 50% for a second week as higher rates weighed on demand; national prices slipped to year-ago levels, and Sydney values are nearly 9% below February’s peak. U.S. Market: Denver-area home sales fell to 2,849 in September, the lowest monthly total since 2008, as mortgage rates climbed to 7.5%. Rising inventory is also giving buyers more leverage nationwide, prompting sellers to consider concessions such as rate buydowns and help with closing costs. Canada: Ottawa recorded 1,002 sales in August, down 18.6% year over year, while supply reached 4.5 months—shifting negotiations toward buyers. Affordability: On Cape Cod, the median single-family price has more than doubled in a decade, leaving many year-round residents priced out.

Affordability Squeeze: Australian buyers need sharply higher incomes despite falling prices: in South Australia, the average income needed to buy a house rose to $167,424, up $27,646 in a year. In Queensland, the lending threshold jumped by more than $30,000, far outpacing wage growth. Auction Market: Singapore’s property auctions are drawing interest but not bargain bids: many listings failed to sell because they missed reserve prices or attracted no offers. More than 80 properties seized in a money-laundering case are expected to come to market through mid-2027. Condo Lending: Fannie Mae is tightening condo loan rules for 2027 as prices slide in Florida, Texas and Arizona, adding pressure for buyers and owners in those markets. Market Headwinds: Higher UK interest rates are expected to weigh on property, while China’s latest effort to revive its housing market has failed to turn conditions around.

Luxury Listings: A former office of Woolworth founder Frank W. Woolworth is on the market for $18.5 million in Manhattan’s Woolworth Building. The four-bedroom, 6,000-square-foot residence retains original 1913 details. Jordan Market: September property transactions rose 16% year over year to about JD720.5 million, while apartment sales climbed 17% to 3,976 units. Analysts say sustaining the rebound will depend on demand and financing costs. Affordability: Apartment prices hit records in several Gyeonggi Province complexes, squeezing buyers priced out of Seoul. Texas Slowdown: Hays County home sales fell 8.1% in August, pending sales dropped 13.5%, and inventory reached 5.5 months; the median price slipped 1.4% to $355,000. Market Headwinds: Higher interest rates are expected to weigh on the UK property market, while Singapore rental yields are reported at 6% to 7%.